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Perspectivas de los sectores económicos de Panamá 2012-2014
Septiembre 4, 2012
Por Juan R. Cortes Dean
jcortes@panamaeconomyinsight.com.pa
Conferencia de las perspectivas de los sectores económicos de Panamá en los años 2012, 2013 y 2014, presentada por Ricardo González, Presidente de Panama Economy Insight, en el Encuentro Ejecutivo de la Cámara de Comercio, Industrias y Agricultura de Panamá el 29 de agosto de 2012, realizada en el hotel Marriot, Ciudad de Panamá.
Usted puede solicitar una presentación de esta conferencia, incluyendo mucho mayores detalles acerca de los sectores económicos o de un sector en particular de su interés. Contacte a Delia López Cardoze, dlopez@panamaeconomyinsight.com.pa, teléfono 260-9962.
Parte I
Parte II
ParteIII
Tablas de Pronósticos de indicadores claves y por sectores económicos
| FORECAST - PANAMA'S ECONOMY KEY INDICATORS | ||||||||
| PRONÓSTICO - INDICADORES CLAVE DE LA ECONOMÍA DE PANAMÁ | ||||||||
| INDICATOR | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| Economic growth rate (%) | 12.1 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 10.6 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 4.5 |
| Crecimiento económico (%) | ||||||||
| Inflation rate (%) | 4.2 | 8.7 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| Tasa de Inflación (%)) | ||||||||
| Unemployment rate (%) | 6.4 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 3.3 |
| Tasa de desempleo (%) | ||||||||
| Interest rate (%) | 8.3 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 9.5 |
| Tasa de interés (%) | ||||||||
| Fiscal deficit or surplus (as % of current GDP) | 3.5 | 0.4 | -1.0 | -1.9 | -2.3 | -2.0 | -1.4 | -1.0 |
| Déficit o superávit fiscal (% del PIB) | ||||||||
| Public debt (as % of current GDP) | 52.9 | 45.0 | 45.6 | 43.4 | 40.9 | 38.5 | 36.5 | 35.2 |
| Deuda pública (% del PIB) | ||||||||
| Last updated: August, 2012 | ||||||||
| Última actualización: Agosto, 2012 | ||||||||
| FORECAST - GOVERNMENT'S KEY INDICATORS | ||||||||
| PRONÓSTICO - INDICADORES CLAVE DEL GOBIERNO | ||||||||
| INDICATOR | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| Government's capital expenditures (in millions of US$) | 969.2 | 1,361.0 | 1,539.7 | 2,668.8 | 2,744.0 | 3,135.0 | 3,234.0 | 3,300.0 |
| Gasto de capital del sector público (millones de dólares) | ||||||||
| Total public debt (in millions of US$) | 10,470.6 | 10,437.4 | 10,972.3 | 11,629.5 | 12,525.0 | 13,426.0 | 14,227.0 | 14,852.0 |
| Deuda pública total (millones de dólares) | ||||||||
| Fiscal deficit or superavit (in millions of US$) | 683.0 | 97.8 | -252.6 | -511.7 | -611.0 | -684.0 | -564.0 | -410.0 |
| Déficit o superávit fiscal (millones de dólares) | ||||||||
| Debt increase (in millions of US$) | 18.0 | -33.2 | 534.9 | 657.2 | 895.5 | 901.0 | 801.0 | 625.0 |
| Aumento o disminución de deuda (millones de dólares) | ||||||||
| Fiscal deficit or surplus (as % of current GDP) | 3.5 | 0.4 | -1.0 | -1.9 | -2.3 | -2.0 | -1.4 | -1.0 |
| Superávit o déficit fiscal como % del PIB | ||||||||
| Public debt (as % of current GDP) | 52.9 | 45.0 | 45.6 | 43.4 | 40.9 | 38.5 | 36.5 | 35.2 |
| Deuda pública (% del PIB) | ||||||||
| Risk country - Standard & Poor | BB | BB+ | BB+ | BBB- | BBB- | BBB | ||
| Calificación de riesgo - Standard & Poor | Positivo | Estable | Positivo | Estable | Estable | Estable | ||
| GDP at current prices (millions of US$) | 19,793.7 | 23,001.6 | 24,080.1 | 26,777.1 | 30,605.6 | 34,846.6 | 38,990.6 | 42,221.9 |
| PIB nominal (millones de dólares) | ||||||||
| Last updated: August, 2012 | ||||||||
| Última actualización: Agosto, 2012 | ||||||||
| FORECAST - PANAMA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES BY ECONOMIC SECTORS (%) | ||||||||
| FORECAST - PANAMA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES BY ECONOMIC SECTORS (%) | ||||||||
| ECONOMIC SECTOR | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| Agriculture | 2.7 | 4.4 | -10.1 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 5.2 |
| Agricultura, ganadería y silvicultura | ||||||||
| Fishing | -3.3 | 15.7 | -3.7 | -41.5 | -21.9 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 7.4 |
| Pesca | ||||||||
| Mining, sand extraction and quarries | 24.0 | 30.9 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 18.4 | 15.3 | 5.9 | -7.0 |
| Minas y canteras | ||||||||
| Manufacturing | 5.6 | 3.9 | -0.6 | 0.9 | 3.2 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 1.5 |
| Industrias manufactureras | ||||||||
| Electricity power generation, distribution, gas and water | 8.2 | 3.8 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 3.8 |
| Suministro de electricidad, gas y agua | ||||||||
| Construction | 21.8 | 30.7 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 18.2 | 14.7 | 5.8 | -7.4 |
| Construcción | ||||||||
| Wholesale and retail, Colon Free Trade Zone | 10.7 | 7.0 | 1.6 | 11.1 | 15.9 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 3.1 |
| Comercio al por mayor, al por menor y en zonas francas | ||||||||
| Hotels and restaurants | 14.2 | 8.3 | 2.6 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 7.8 |
| Hoteles y restaurantes | ||||||||
| Transportation, warehousing and communications | 17.0 | 15.5 | 8.2 | 15.4 | 13.7 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 9.2 |
| Transporte, almacenamiento y comunicaciones | ||||||||
| Banking and other financial services | 19.2 | 14.1 | 2.9 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 3.7 |
| Intermediación financiera | ||||||||
| Real estate and other services | 8.6 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 5.0 |
| Actividades inmobiliarias y empresariales | ||||||||
| Private and public teaching | 7.1 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 3.6 |
| Enseñanza pública y privada | ||||||||
| Private and public healthcare and social services | 12.9 | 1.8 | 7.7 | -1.8 | 0.2 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 5.1 |
| Servicios sociales y de salud pública y privada | ||||||||
| Other social services | 14.4 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 4.7 |
| Otros servicios sociales | ||||||||
| Public administration and defense | 3.3 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.1 |
| Administración pública y defensa | ||||||||
| Homes with personal services | 1.1 | 1.8 | -0.8 | 1.3 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Hogares privados con servicio doméstico | ||||||||
| GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT | 12.1 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 10.6 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 4.5 |
| PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO | ||||||||
| Last updated: August, 2012 | ||||||||
| Última actualización: Agosto, 2012 | ||||||||
| FORECAST - PANAMA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES BY TYPE OF EXPENDITURE (%) | ||||||||
| PRONÓSTICO - TASAS DE CRECIMIENTO DE LA ECONOMÍA DE PANAMA POR TIPO DE GASTO (%) | ||||||||
| TYPE OF EXPEDITURE | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| Private consumption | 0.9 | 12.5 | 0.4 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 10.6 | 8.1 | 4.5 |
| Gasto de consumo final privado | ||||||||
| Public consumption | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| Gasto de consumo final público | ||||||||
| Private and public investment | 33.2 | 30.7 | -5.7 | 11.2 | 12.7 | 15.3 | 5.8 | -8.3 |
| Inversión privada y pública | ||||||||
| Exports | 22.0 | 8.0 | 0.6 | 7.3 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 10.3 |
| Exportaciones | ||||||||
| Imports | 18.1 | 13.7 | -6.0 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 6.5 |
| Importaciones | ||||||||
| GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT | 12.1 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 10.6 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 4.5 |
| PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO | ||||||||
| Last updated: August, 2012 | ||||||||
| Última actualización: Agosto, 2012 | ||||||||
| FORECAST - PANAMA'S POPULATION EMPLOYED | ||||||||
| PRONÓSTICO - POBLACIÓN OCUPADA DE PANAMÁ | ||||||||
| ECONOMIC SECTOR | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| Agriculture | 244,631 | 243,384 | 247,391 | 158,501 | 250,660 | 216,938 | 226,766 | 237,333 |
| Agricultura, ganadería y silvicultura | ||||||||
| Fishing | 11,758 | 11,204 | 12,524 | 11,626 | 4,655 | 4,609 | 4,846 | 5,179 |
| Pesca | ||||||||
| Mining, sand extraction and quarries | 3,729 | 3,289 | 3,374 | 2,807 | 3,124 | 4,265 | 4,351 | 4,026 |
| Minas y canteras | ||||||||
| Manufacturing | 120,108 | 122,932 | 125,407 | 120,519 | 103,963 | 120,472 | 124,941 | 126,166 |
| Industrias manufactureras | ||||||||
| Power, gas and water | 8,339 | 7,288 | 8,148 | 7,613 | 15,568 | 8,378 | 8,732 | 9,022 |
| Suministro de electricidad, gas y agua | ||||||||
| Construction | 124,190 | 137,824 | 139,321 | 141,316 | 156,787 | 180,227 | 183,713 | 169,303 |
| Construcción | ||||||||
| Wholesale and retail, Colon Free Zone | 243,235 | 261,353 | 249,175 | 253,426 | 268,163 | 318,846 | 329,039 | 337,645 |
| Comercio al por mayor, al por menor y en zonas francas | ||||||||
| Hotels and restaurants | 69,521 | 71,334 | 77,828 | 74,839 | 74,929 | 83,296 | 87,876 | 94,282 |
| Hoteles y restaurantes | ||||||||
| Transportation, warehousing and communication | 92,168 | 101,349 | 108,698 | 113,406 | 120,950 | 135,823 | 144,653 | 157,217 |
| Transporte, almacenamiento y comunicaciones | ||||||||
| Banking and other financial services | 28,941 | 28,428 | 27,792 | 27,595 | 37,439 | 29,396 | 29,521 | 30,460 |
| Intermediación financiera | ||||||||
| Real estate and others | 67,088 | 71,887 | 77,997 | 82,787 | 98,710 | 81,410 | 85,122 | 88,906 |
| Actividades inmobiliarias, empresariales y de alquiler | ||||||||
| Public and private teaching | 68,800 | 76,486 | 75,940 | 82,436 | 81,367 | 72,642 | 73,531 | 75,796 |
| Public and private teaching | ||||||||
| Public and private healthcare and social services | 50,958 | 56,108 | 59,664 | 65,466 | 55,856 | 53,970 | 55,345 | 57,861 |
| Servicios sociales y de salud privada y pública | ||||||||
| Other social services | 65,013 | 70,893 | 73,681 | 73,000 | 55,084 | 82,042 | 85,552 | 89,159 |
| Otros servicios sociales | ||||||||
| Public administration and defense | 81,058 | 79,708 | 81,992 | 86,634 | 102,266 | 80,824 | 81,668 | 84,569 |
| Administración pública y defensa | ||||||||
| Homes with personal services | 76,765 | 77,539 | 71,206 | 68,786 | 69,755 | 70,206 | 69,597 | 71,259 |
| Hogares privados con servicio doméstico | ||||||||
| Organizaciones y órganos extraterritoriales | 670 | 915 | 663 | 1,344 | 1,578 | 1,578 | 1,578 | 1,578 |
| Organizaciones y órganos extraterritoriales | ||||||||
| POPULATION EMPLOYED | 1,356,972 | 1,421,921 | 1,440,801 | 1,311,075 | 1,500,854 | 1,544,920 | 1,596,831 | 1,639,760 |
| POBLACIÓN OCUPADA | ||||||||
| Economically population active | 1,449,318 | 1,505,930 | 1,541,904 | 1,388,261 | 1,570,774 | 1,611,292 | 1,652,855 | 1,695,491 |
| Población económicamente activa | ||||||||
| Population of 15 or more old year | 2,309,763 | 2,356,900 | 2,403,277 | 2,186,238 | 2,541,706 | 2,591,718 | 2,642,715 | 2,694,716 |
| Población de 15 y más años de edad | ||||||||
| Share of Economically population active | 62.7 | 63.9 | 64.3 | 63.5 | 61.8 | 62.2 | 62.5 | 62.9 |
| Participación de la población en la fuerza de trabajo | ||||||||
| POPULATION UNEMPLOYED | 92,346 | 84,009 | 101,103 | 77,186 | 69,920 | 66,372 | 56,024 | 55,731 |
| POBLACIÓN DESOCUPADA | ||||||||
| UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%) | 6.4 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 3.3 |
| TASA DE DESEMPLEO (%) | ||||||||
| Last updated: August, 2012 | ||||||||
| Última actualización: Agosto, 2012 | ||||||||
| PRONÓSTICO - PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO DE PANAMÁ POR SECTORES ECONÓMICOS | ||||||||
| (millones de dólares a precios de 1996) | ||||||||
| FORECAST - PANAMA'S GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY ECONOMIC SECTORS | ||||||||
| (millions of US$ at 1996 constan prices) | ||||||||
| ECONOMIC SECTOR | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| Agriculture | 688.8 | 719.5 | 646.5 | 658.4 | 683.5 | 757.7 | 822.1 | 864.7 |
| Agricultura, ganadería y silvicultura | ||||||||
| Fishing | 356.2 | 412.2 | 397.0 | 232.3 | 181.5 | 200.3 | 218.6 | 234.8 |
| Pesca | ||||||||
| Mining, sand extraction and quarries | 197.8 | 259.0 | 270.8 | 290.7 | 344.1 | 396.8 | 420.2 | 390.8 |
| Minas y canteras | ||||||||
| Manufacturing | 1,126.7 | 1,170.9 | 1,163.9 | 1,174.1 | 1,211.6 | 1,355.7 | 1,459.4 | 1,481.1 |
| Industrias manufactureras | ||||||||
| Power, gas and water | 484.3 | 502.9 | 540.5 | 575.4 | 614.0 | 683.0 | 739.0 | 767.3 |
| Suministro de electricidad, gas y agua | ||||||||
| Construction | 857.1 | 1,120.3 | 1,170.3 | 1,252.3 | 1,480.1 | 1,697.6 | 1,796.2 | 1,663.5 |
| Construcción | ||||||||
| Wholesale and retail, Colon Free Zone | 2,517.7 | 2,695.2 | 2,737.5 | 3,042.3 | 3,526.9 | 3,884.8 | 4,161.3 | 4,291.5 |
| Comercio al por mayor, al por menor y en zonas francas | ||||||||
| Hotels and restaurants | 494.9 | 535.9 | 549.7 | 607.0 | 653.4 | 725.1 | 794.0 | 856.1 |
| Hoteles y restaurantes | ||||||||
| Transportation, warehousing and communications | 3,417.5 | 3,945.8 | 4,269.0 | 4,928.4 | 5,601.3 | 6,247.7 | 6,906.7 | 7,544.1 |
| Transporte, almacenamiento y comunicaciones | ||||||||
| Banking and other financial services | 1,414.7 | 1,614.6 | 1,661.4 | 1,753.0 | 1,886.7 | 1,972.5 | 2,056.2 | 2,132.2 |
| Intermediación financiera | ||||||||
| Real estate and other services | 2,607.7 | 2,795.6 | 2,947.8 | 3,146.8 | 3,369.4 | 3,740.5 | 4,059.7 | 4,261.4 |
| Actividades inmobiliarias y empresariales | ||||||||
| Private and public teaching | 519.3 | 527.7 | 541.5 | 550.4 | 558.8 | 592.1 | 622.2 | 644.5 |
| Enseñanza pública y privada | ||||||||
| Private and public healthcare and social services | 448.6 | 456.9 | 491.9 | 482.9 | 483.8 | 519.3 | 552.7 | 580.7 |
| Servicios sociales y de salud pública y privada | ||||||||
| Other social services | 517.1 | 552.3 | 579.5 | 616.2 | 682.4 | 755.1 | 817.4 | 856.1 |
| Otros servicios sociales | ||||||||
| Public administration and defense | 569.8 | 618.2 | 638.1 | 668.5 | 702.9 | 740.6 | 776.8 | 808.4 |
| Administración pública y defensa | ||||||||
| Private homes with personal services | 112.6 | 114.7 | 113.8 | 115.3 | 119.2 | 122.6 | 126.2 | 129.9 |
| Hogares privados con servicio doméstico | ||||||||
| Net direct taxes on output | 1,133.2 | 1,175.3 | 1,264.2 | 1,385.9 | 1,623.0 | 1,623.1 | 1,748.8 | 1,825.3 |
| Impuesto sobre los productos menos subsidios | ||||||||
| Minus financial services | 379.8 | 403.9 | 430.5 | 446.7 | 470.3 | 434.1 | 450.2 | 460.0 |
| Menos servicios de intermediación financiera | ||||||||
| GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT | 17,084.3 | 18,812.9 | 19,552.9 | 21,033.2 | 23,252.4 | 25,580.4 | 27,627.3 | 28,872.5 |
| PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO | ||||||||
| Last updated: August, 2012 | ||||||||
| Última actualización: Agosto, 2012 | ||||||||
| FORECAST - PANAMA'S GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY TYPE OF EXPENDITURE | ||||||||
| (millions of US$ at 1996 constan prices) | ||||||||
| PRONÓSTICO - PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO DE PANAMA POR TIPO DE GASTO | ||||||||
| (millones de dólares a precios de 1996) | ||||||||
| TYPE OF EXPEDITURE | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| Private consumption | 10,085.9 | 9,876.7 | 9,911.6 | 10,738.6 | 11,791.1 | 13,036.5 | 14,092.7 | 14,731.2 |
| Gasto de consumo final privado | ||||||||
| Public consumption | 1,822.0 | 1,869.0 | 1,940.4 | 2,020.8 | 2,105.8 | 2,196.6 | 2,292.3 | 2,393.5 |
| Gasto de consumo final público | ||||||||
| Private and public investment | 3,950.3 | 5,115.9 | 4,822.2 | 5,360.7 | 6,043.4 | 6,969.7 | 7,372.5 | 6,758.7 |
| Inversión privada y pública | ||||||||
| Exports | 13,512.5 | 15,922.3 | 16,010.5 | 17,186.7 | 18,900.8 | 20,754.2 | 22,807.0 | 25,158.8 |
| Exportaciones | ||||||||
| Imports | 12,286.4 | 13,971.0 | 13,131.8 | 14,273.6 | 15,588.7 | 17,376.5 | 18,937.2 | 20,169.7 |
| Importaciones | ||||||||
| GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT | 17,084.3 | 18,812.9 | 19,552.9 | 21,033.2 | 23,252.4 | 25,580.4 | 27,627.3 | 28,872.5 |
| PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUT | ||||||||
| Last updated: August, 2012 | ||||||||
| Última actualización: Agosto, 2012 | ||||||||
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